El Niño strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. Most Niño indices increased in the past month, reaching +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3, and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) was well above average [Fig. 3], reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperatures remained in excess of +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Ind 下次更新: 12 November 2026
[Phys.org] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: Scientists find key to predicting some El Niño events 12 months ahead
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño
[Weather West] 关于厄尔尼诺气候影响的新闻: El Niño, already near/at record intensity, will further strengthen to historic level and likely bring major California & SW U.S. winter impacts
[The Old Farmer’s Almanac] What Is El Niño? What It Means for Winter 2026–2027
[Eumetsat] 关于厄尔尼诺气候影响的新闻: Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on European climate: A satellite view
[Texas Storm Chasers] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: What the Super El Niño Means for Texas This Winter
[Climate Central] Three Things to Know: El Niño and Global Temperatures
[ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: NOAA forecasts a wet south and warmer north as El Nino impacts winter weather in the US - ABC News
[ReliefWeb] Ecuador ENSO Floods 2026 - Imminent DREF Operation (MDREC032)
[FOX Weather] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Super El Niño fueled winter could unleash more storms, driving more active pattern into the South
[Climate Impact Company] El Nino Peak NOV/DEC-26, La Nina Later Next Year
[FOX Weather] 'Historic' El Niño increasingly likely, with 83% chance of becoming the strongest on record
[coyotegulch.blog] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: The latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion (October 8, 2026) is hot off the presses from the #Climate Prediction Center
[Columbia University] El Niño 2026: How Big Could It Get?
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] NOAA gives El Niño an 83% chance of reaching historic strength in late 2026 - The Watchers
[MSUToday] Ask the expert: What to expect from this year’s El Niño
[Science News Explores] 2026’s El Niño is record-breaking — and it’s not done yet
[IDB | Inter American Development Bank] El Niño 2026-2027 Monitoring Tool
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Winter 2026/2027 First Forecast: Super El Niño Drives a Major Weather Divide
[Carbon Brief] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: El Niño forecast to reach historic strength ahead of winter 2026–27 - The Watchers
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027
[Unofficial Networks] NOAA Says El Niño Continues To Strengthen Ahead Of Winter 2026-27
[ReliefWeb] El Niño 2026: Risks, resilience and collective action in Latin America - Thematic Newsletter (September 2026)
[NOAA (.gov)] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Fall 2026 Forecast Update: Super El Niño Builds a Split-Flow Pattern Ahead of Winter 2026/2027
[watchers.news] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: El Niño forecast to reach historic strength ahead of winter 2026–27
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)
[usgs.gov] 2026 El Niño: What Does It Mean for Resource Managers?
[Minnesota DNR] "El Niño" is Coming. What Might That Mean for Minnesota's Weather?
[theclimatebrink.com] 关于厄尔尼诺气候影响的新闻: The impacts of this year’s record-shattering El Niño
[Newswise] FSU Expert Explains El Niño’s Role in Quiet 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Newswise
[ReliefWeb] Global Update | September 2026: An Inter-Agency Report of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell - El Niño Status & Humanitarian Outlook
[CNET] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: This El Niño Has Reached ‘Super’ Status. Here’s What That Means
[news - Mongabay] Global ocean breaks records with 100 days of heat as El Niño adds new threat - news
[KKTV] Will a strong El Niño give us more snowfall this year? What does historical data say
[climateimpactcompany.com] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Strong to Super El Nino 2026 Continues to Strengthen
[SnowBrains] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast September Update: Colorado Gets an Early-Season Upgrade and California Holds Its Ground
[SnowBrains] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: El Niño 2026-27 Ski Forecast: 75% Chance of a Record Event
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Super El Niño Builds a Strong Hurricane Shield for the United States, Lasting Into October
[ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos] UN warns of 'very strong' El Nino this year, carrying threat of extreme weather - ABC News
[ArcGIS StoryMaps] El Niño and La Niña in South-Central Texas
[KTLA] 75 percent chance of historic El Niño this year: NOAA
[FOX Weather] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: El Niño intensifies with nearly 100% odds strengthening into 'Super' status as Atlantic hurricane season peaks
[Climate Impact Company] Latest Multivariate ENSO Index Report
[coyotegulch.blog] 关于厄尔尼诺预报的新闻: The latest #ElNiño/Southern Oscillation (#ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion is hot off the presses from the #Climate Prediction Center
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Niño to 75% for October–December 2026 - The Watchers
[Climate Impact Company] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: ECMWF El Nino-Driven Precipitation Impacts Caused by Super El Nino for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27
[Newsweek] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：三个超级厄尔尼诺预测如何比较
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：厄尔尼诺现象预计到 2026 年底将变得非常强烈，导致 2027 年极端天气风险增加 - The Watchers
[CBS News] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：联合国警告称，“超大”厄尔尼诺现象最恶劣的天气仍在前方，包括极端高温、干旱、洪水
[The Guardian] El Niño southern oscillation
[Ars Technica] 研究发现，厄尔尼诺现象现在比过去 1000 年来的任何时候都更强
[BoiseDev] El Niño Advisory issued for the fall and winter 2026-27
[EarthSky] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Will El Niño become supersized? What experts are saying
[MPR News] 厄尔尼诺现象加强，给明尼苏达州的冬季带来新问题
[Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA] 2026 年厄尔尼诺现象：您需要了解的信息
[news - Mongabay] 世界必须回顾过去，为可能史无前例的厄尔尼诺现象做好准备 - 新闻
[Climate Impact Company] An Abrupt End to El Nino Early 2027; La Nina Possible by Mid-year
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] 强厄尔尼诺现象预计将加剧
[UC Agriculture and Natural Resources] What is a strong El Niño and what does it mean for California?
[Berkeleyside] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：“超级”厄尔尼诺现象来了。对于湾区来说意味着什么？
[Climate Impact Company] Strongest El Nino on Record Likely by Q4/2026, Ending Time Projected for Middle of 2027
[Phys.org] What a record-breaking El Niño could mean for the world
[SnowBrains] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：厄尔尼诺现象 2026-27 滑雪预测八月更新：90%+ 的赔率，历史性的阈值，以及加州多年来的最佳设置
[Türkiye Today] 2026 年厄尔尼诺现象预计将是有记录以来最强的
[theclimatebrink.com] 这次厄尔尼诺现象是未来地球更热的一瞥吗？
[ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos] 关于厄尔尼诺气候影响的新闻：潜在的历史性厄尔尼诺现象即将形成，预计将对美国和全球产生深远影响 - ABC News
[FOX Weather] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：厄尔尼诺现象继续加强至创纪录的水平，到年底达到“超级”状态的可能性增加
[The Colorado Sun] 厄尔尼诺现象是导致科罗拉多州夏季热浪的原因吗？
[USA Today] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：更新的厄尔尼诺预报警告“历史性事件”
[coyotegulch.blog] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：气候预测中心的媒体对 2026 年 8 月 13 日厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (#ENSO) 的诊断讨论进行了热烈讨论
[Newsweek] 厄尔尼诺现象可能是有记录以来最强的：2026 年相比如何
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead of Winter
[POWDER Magazine] 厄尔尼诺现象今年冬天可能会给多个州带来高于平均水平的降雪量
[FOX Weather] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：NOAA 发布更新的 2026 年大西洋飓风展望，“超级”厄尔尼诺现象迫在眉睫，旨在限制活动
[SURFER Magazine] 2026 年厄尔尼诺现象观察：历史性太平洋天气事件引发的最新更新
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] NOAA 确认厄尔尼诺现象加强，2026 年 10 月至 12 月有 81% 的可能性出现非常强的情况 - 观察者报
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：新的海洋异常现象加入超级厄尔尼诺现象，重塑2026/2027年冬季预测
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：随着超级厄尔尼诺现象的形成，2026/2027 年冬季出现极地涡旋警告信号
[vox.com] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：超级厄尔尼诺如何影响全球气候
[Science News Explores] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：“超级”厄尔尼诺现象似乎正在出现。有什么大不了的？
[Yale Climate Connections] 这可能是有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] Strong El Niño expected to intensify as much of the world faces above normal temperatures and major changes in rainfall patterns
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Super El Niño Drives an August Weather Shift as Fall and Winter Signals Strengthen
[American Enterprise Institute - AEI] ENSO、美国飓风和全球灾难 - 美国企业研究所
[Carbon Brief] State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Niño raises chance of record-warm 2026
[Lockhart Post Register] 厄尔尼诺现象将于 2026 年接管：这对考德威尔县意味着什么
[WXII] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：超级厄尔尼诺现象预计将于 2026 年末出现 |北卡罗来纳州的影响
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：随着 2026/2027 年冬季信号的出现，超级厄尔尼诺现象预测将达到创纪录的强度
[Peterson Institute for International Economics] 厄尔尼诺现象可能导致全球经济损失近 7000 亿美元或 3 万亿美元——选择权在我们
[Marex] 天气风险更新：厄尔尼诺现象增强 |报告
[ABC7 Los Angeles] 厄尔尼诺现象正在加强：这对美国意味着什么
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：2026 年秋季预报：超级厄尔尼诺现象将形成类似冬季的天气模式，并持续到一月
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：罕见的大西洋尼娜现象出现，与超级厄尔尼诺现象一起为美国打造大气盾
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] 随着厄尔尼诺现象的加强，罕见的大西洋尼娜现象出现，预示着 2026 年大西洋飓风季节将更加平静 - 观察者网
[theclimatebrink.com] 有史以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象
[SnowBrains] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：厄尔尼诺现象 2026-27 正在加速。 NOAA 七月滑雪预测有新的赢家和更明显的输家
[Climate Impact Company] 2026 年下半年将出现创纪录强度的厄尔尼诺现象！
[The Watchers - Watching the world evolve and transform] 厄尔尼诺现象加强，到 2026 年底，有 81% 的机会成为有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象之一 - 观察者报
[SFGATE] El Niño is gathering strength. Here’s what that means for California rainfall.
[ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos] 厄尔尼诺现象正在加强：这对美国意味着什么 - ABC News
[FOX Weather] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：今年秋天酝酿超级厄尔尼诺现象的可能性再次增加，达到有史以来最强的潜力
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：厄尔尼诺现象预计将加剧，极端天气的可能性增加
[ReliefWeb] Global El Niño Overview: Countries to watch - Thematic report (07 July 2026)
[coyotegulch.blog] 关于厄尔尼诺的新闻：2026 年 7 月 9 日#ENSO 诊断讨论在 #Climate Prediction Center #ElNiño 的媒体上引起热议
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] 世界气象组织(WMO)关于厄尔尼诺的声明: WMO: Prepare for El Niño
[Weather West] 关于厄尔尼诺气候影响的新闻: Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: Super El Niño Is Now Breaking Into the Atmosphere as July Forecasts Show a Pattern Shift for the U.S. and Canada
[Yale Climate Connections] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：什么是“超级厄尔尼诺”？ And other El Niño questions, answered
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：2026 年超级厄尔尼诺现象将如何影响北美和欧洲的夏季天气模式？
[Climate Impact Company] 接近强海洋厄尔尼诺阈值
[Voronoi by Visual Capitalist] The El Niño Cycle: 1979-2026
[MPR News] El Niño returns: NOAA issues advisory as ocean warming signals a potentially powerful event
[ReliefWeb] 全球 ENSO 分析小组的机构间报告：厄尔尼诺现象和人道主义前景
[NASA Science (.gov)] 厄尔尼诺现象正在发生
[Science News] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：“超级厄尔尼诺”可能即将来临。这意味着什么？
[Columbia University] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：您问：“超级”厄尔尼诺到底是什么？
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻: NASA Detects a Major Pacific Sea Level Rise as Super El Niño Rapidly Strengthens
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] 厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象更新（2026 年 5 月）
[Severe Weather Europe] 关于厄尔尼诺·罗斯的新闻：美国和加拿大六月天气预报中首次检测到厄尔尼诺现象
[World Meteorological Organization WMO] 世界气象组织(WMO)关于厄尔尼诺的声明: WMO: Likelihood increases of El Niño
过去一个月，赤道中东部太平洋的海面温度（SST）接近平均水平，ENSO中性状况持续存在[图1]。 1]。最新的每周Niño-3.4指数值为+0.4°C，最西端（Niño-4）和最东端（Niño-1+2）指数分别为+0.5°C和+1.0°C[图1]。 2]。赤道地下温度指数（平均180°-100°W）连续六个月上升[图1]。 3]，赤道太平洋地区普遍存在显着高于平均水平的地下温度[图3]。 4]。赤道西太平洋低层观测到西风异常，中太平洋和中东部高层观测到明显西风异常。日期变更线附近赤道上的对流接近平均水平并且有供应 下次更新: 11 June 2026
[Fortune] 关于厄尔尼诺现象的新闻：罕见的“超级”厄尔尼诺现象看起来更有可能发生。这是值得期待的
[NOAA's National Ocean Service (.gov)] 厄尔尼诺现象和涨潮洪水可能会在 2026 年对一些沿海社区造成双重打击
[Down To Earth] 2026 年厄尔尼诺现象发展异常迅速，可能会与有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象相媲美
The Pacific Ocean has hit pause and settled into ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. This makes seasonal forecasting for upcoming global rain, temperature, and other patterns a bit trickier. The odds of La Niña increase through the fall but remain lower than the odds of neutral. By the November–January period, there’s a 48% chance of neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña, with El Niño a distant third. Grab your towel , today we’re touring the galaxy of ENSO-neutral and what it means for seasonal prediction. El Niño and La Niña, known collectively as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are a system of changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. El Niño and La Niña alter global atmospheric circulation and the jet str
The tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, and neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for the fall and winter, although chances of La Niña are a close second. Today, as your trusty representative of the ENSO forecast team, I’ll cover current conditions in the tropical Pacific, what we mean by neutral , and what it means for seasonal climate prediction… with a side of Macbeth (footnote 1). First, let’s set the stage for why we care so much about El Niño and La Niña, the natural climate pattern collectively known as ENSO , the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. El Niño and La Niña change global atmospheric circulation and the jet streams in known ways, with impacts on extreme rain , drought , snow , heatwaves , th
After just a few months of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely state through the fall (greater than 50% chance). ENSO stands for “ El Niño/Southern Oscillation ,” a pattern of changes in the temperature of the ocean surface and atmospheric circulation of the tropical Pacific region. La Niña means the surface water is cooler than average, the trade winds are stronger, and the central equatorial Pacific receives less rain. On the other hand, El Niño is represented by warmer surface water, weaker trade winds, and more rain in the central and sometimes eastern Pacific. Both phases of ENSO change global weather and climate patterns , including temperature
While many of us in the U.S. are reveling in the excitement of college basketball tournaments and trying to win our March Madness pools, it’s also a good time to look back at this past winter’s (December 2024– February 2025) precipitation pattern over North America. Were the seasonal forecast models a winner or a bust this winter? Was La Niña a star or a benchwarmer? Let’s go to the videotape! Early last December , I wrote about the predicted winter North American precipitation pattern from a group of state-of-the-art computer forecast models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) . At that time, I argued that the forecasted precipitation pattern was consistent with at least a moderate-strength La Niña even though the forecast of sea surface temperatures reflected a weak La Ni
La Niña conditions are waning, and a transition to ENSO-neutral is favored in the next month.
A new paper looked at 20 years work of real-time ENSO Model forecasts and found some interesting patterns. Did you know models found it pretty freaking hard to predict the onset of La Nina events?
La Niña conditions continue, but forecasters estimate a 66% chance of a switch to neutral in March–May. This is looking like a weak and short La Niña. Also, while La Niña’s ocean conditions are currently weak, the atmospheric component is fairly strong. Today, I’ll cover current conditions, the forecast, and that mismatch between the ocean and atmosphere across the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña and its counterpart El Niño make up the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. La Niña’s characteristic cooler-than-average tropical Pacific surface water changes global atmospheric circulation in known ways, providing an early picture into potential upcoming temperature, rain/snow, and other climate patterns. El Niño’s warmer-than-average tropical Pacific also has global impacts on climate patter
Right now, with La Niña conditions currently underway , I guarantee at least one of our readers is currently thinking “This alleged ‘La Niña’ is going to bust so hard in my region. It’s supposed to be DRY and it’s been WET so far. What the heck is wrong with you people!? BUST, BUST, BUST…” It’s frustrating! I get it! That’s because I too am human and get weirdly annoyed when the forecast is for something I want to happen, say 5 inches of snow , and then we end up with dry pavement. But, being a scientist, I also realize that weather and climate predictions contain uncertainty. And uncertainty stinks especially when you really want that outcome to materialize. So, today I am going to try to explain the inherent uncertainty that we typically see with winter (December–February) La Niña impact
NOAA CPC weekly ENSO status report covering the latest sea surface temperature anomalies in the four Nino regions, subsurface ocean temperatures, atmospheric wind patterns, and the ENSO evolution forecast. Includes the official weekly ENSO presentation PDF.